The US PC market experienced a resurgence in Q4 2025, with shipments growing by 3% year-on-year to 18.2 million units. This turnaround followed two consecutive quarters of decline, primarily due to a surge in Windows 11 commercial refreshes, holiday-season demand, and vendors' efforts to secure inventory ahead of anticipated memory and storage supply constraints in 2026. Despite this positive development, the market is expected to face a 13% decline in 2026 due to supply chain issues, particularly affecting the sub-$500 segment, which includes most education and entry-level consumer devices.
The consumer segment saw a 6% increase in shipments to 8.2 million units, driven by holiday spending and a shift towards more affordable price ranges. The commercial segment grew by 4%, with enterprises continuing their Windows 11 migration. The education segment, however, remains a weak spot, declining by 11% in Q4, although this is an improvement from the previous quarter. Government shipments also edged up by 1%, stabilizing after a sharp pullback earlier in the year.
Dell emerged as a strong performer, claiming the number two position with a 25% market share, up 22% year-on-year. HP retained the top spot with a 25% share, despite more modest 1% growth. Lenovo and Apple each recorded mid-teen market shares. Apple, in particular, has been making significant market share gains in US businesses, reaching an 11% share in full year 2025, driven by the MacBook Air and Neo models.
Looking ahead, the PC market is expected to face challenges in 2026 due to rising memory and storage costs, which have increased by 40-70% since the start of 2025. Omdia predicts a further 60% increase in mainstream PC memory and storage costs in Q1 2026, impacting the sub-$500 segment the most. Smaller vendors are at risk of being squeezed out of the market as thinner margins and lower allocation priority affect the low-end market.
In conclusion, while the US PC market demonstrated a positive growth in Q4 2025, the outlook for 2026 is cautious due to supply chain constraints and rising costs. The market's resilience and the impact of vendor strategies will be crucial in determining its trajectory in the coming years. As the industry navigates these challenges, the focus on innovation and value propositions will be essential for vendors to maintain their competitive edge.
